Breaking the Likelihood Trap: Variance-Calibrated Modulation for Large Language Model Decoding
In open-ended generation, LLMs frequently fall into the "likelihood trap", characterized by repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness,…
Why am I seeing this Ranked on source trust — arXiv
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It clears the bar without leading strongly on any one factor. A middling score is not a claim that the story is important — only that nothing about it is weak.
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| Factor | Weight | Score | Contribution | Where it came from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corroboration | 0.35 | 0.39 | +0.135 34% | 1 independent org on the story. Tier-3 aggregators never corroborate — they can show something is circulating, never that it is true. |
| Source trustleads | 0.25 | 0.85 | +0.212 53% | arXiv is the highest-trust source on this story and is first-party — the organisation announcing its own news. Trust is taken from the best source, not averaged. |
| Pickup rate | 0.20 | 0.00 | +0.000 0% | One counted organisation, so there is no spread to measure — nothing has picked this up to set a rate. |
| Freshness | 0.20 | 0.25 | +0.050 13% | Halves every 10 hours from the newest item on the story. This is the only factor that rewards a story for nothing more than being recent. |
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hikari_no_yume · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons · illustrativeWhat happened
In open-ended generation, LLMs frequently fall into the "likelihood trap", characterized by repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness, resulting in a discrepancy between machine-generated and human-written text. While post-hoc tail truncation (e.g., Top-p, Min-p) avoids sampling from the unreliable tail, it can misalign generation with human lexical preferences by over-sampling from the uncalibrated head; fixed scalar repetition penalties, in turn, ignore how the scale of the logit distribution varies across inference steps, which can disrupt semantic coherence. To address both shortcomings, we propose Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM), a training-free pre-decoding intervention.
How this story arrived
Ordered by when each source was first observed, which is what the velocity figure is computed from. Publishers backdate; observed order does not.
- 01 Arxivfirst-party first seen Breaking the Likelihood Trap: Variance-Calibrated Modulation for Large Language Model Decodi
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