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Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation

-cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in generative tasks but pose potential risks due to their tendency…

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    1 new sentence, beginning: “Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in generative tasks but pose potential risks due to their…”

    Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation

    Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in generative tasks but pose potential risks due to their tendency to generate hallucinatory responses. Therefore, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), which aims to distinguish the validity of answers, is crucial for ensuring the safety and robustness of AI systems. However, existing methods primarily rely on measuring the entropy of multiple stochastic samples to represent uncertainty, often overlooking the specific uncertainty information associated with the candidate answer under evaluation. This oversight can lead to biased classification outcomes. In this paper, we investigate the discrepancy between global entropy from multiple samples and local confidence of candidate answer, and propose a Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Quantification (LCA-UQ) method based on Pointwise Kullback-Leibler (PKL) divergence. Our method effectively bridges the gap between the consistency of sampled outputs and the calibration of the candidate answer, thereby enhancing the reliability and stability of uncertainty assessments. Empirical evaluations across a range of popular LLMs and NLP datasets reveal that label sources significantly impact classification. Furthermore, our approach effectively captures the nuances between sampling results and label sources, demonstrating superior performance in uncertainty estimation.

  2. As first published

    Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation

    -cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in generative tasks but pose potential risks due to their tendency to generate hallucinatory responses. Therefore, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), which aims to distinguish the validity of answers, is crucial for ensuring the safety and robustness of AI systems. However, existing methods primarily rely on measuring the entropy of multiple stochastic samples to represent uncertainty, often overlooking the specific uncertainty information associated with the candidate answer under evaluation. This oversight can lead to biased classification outcomes. In this paper, we investigate the discrepancy between global entropy from multiple samples and local confidence of candidate answer, and propose a Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Quantification (LCA-UQ) method based on Pointwise Kullback-Leibler (PKL) divergence. Our method effectively bridges the gap between the consistency of sampled outputs and the calibration of the candidate answer, thereby enhancing the reliability and stability of uncertainty assessments. Empirical evaluations across a range of popular LLMs and NLP datasets reveal that label sources significantly impact classification. Furthermore, our approach effectively captures the nuances between sampling results and label sources, demonstrating superior performance in uncertainty estimation.

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FactorWeightScore ContributionWhere it came from
Corroboration 0.35 0.39 +0.135 34% 1 independent org on the story. Tier-3 aggregators never corroborate — they can show something is circulating, never that it is true.
Source trustleads 0.25 0.85 +0.212 53% arXiv is the highest-trust source on this story and is first-party — the organisation announcing its own news. Trust is taken from the best source, not averaged.
Pickup rate 0.20 0.00 +0.000 0% One counted organisation, so there is no spread to measure — nothing has picked this up to set a rate.
Freshness 0.20 0.27 +0.054 14% Halves every 10 hours from the newest item on the story. This is the only factor that rewards a story for nothing more than being recent.

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What happened

-cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in generative tasks but pose potential risks due to their tendency to generate hallucinatory responses. Therefore, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), which aims to distinguish the validity of answers, is crucial for ensuring the safety and robustness of AI systems. However, existing methods primarily rely on measuring the entropy of multiple stochastic samples to represent uncertainty, often overlooking the specific uncertainty information associated with the candidate answer under evaluation. This oversight can lead to biased classification outcomes.

1independent orgs
40story score
0velocity
85source trust
8passes seen

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