The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vision-Language Models
A calibrated Vision-Language Model (VLM) can repeatedly self-correct, say "Wait, I should recheck," arrive at the wrong answer, and still report high…
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| Factor | Weight | Score | Contribution | Where it came from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corroboration | 0.35 | 0.39 | +0.135 34% | 1 independent org on the story. Tier-3 aggregators never corroborate — they can show something is circulating, never that it is true. |
| Source trustleads | 0.25 | 0.85 | +0.212 53% | arXiv is the highest-trust source on this story and is first-party — the organisation announcing its own news. Trust is taken from the best source, not averaged. |
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| Freshness | 0.20 | 0.27 | +0.054 14% | Halves every 10 hours from the newest item on the story. This is the only factor that rewards a story for nothing more than being recent. |
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What happened
A calibrated Vision-Language Model (VLM) can repeatedly self-correct, say "Wait, I should recheck," arrive at the wrong answer, and still report high confidence. We find that this occurs because verbalized confidence is largely trajectory-independent in the VLMs and calibration methods we evaluate. We examine this through three complementary lenses: content variation, token masking, and the model's own hesitation markers. We show that confidence is insufficiently sensitive to what the reasoning trajectory actually contains, and that calibration training can paradoxically worsen this disconnect.
How this story arrived
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- 01 Arxivfirst-party first seen The Mirage of Calibrated Confidence: Trajectory-Independence of Verbalized Confidence in Vis
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